Prop-firm pass model

Match the dials to how you actually trade. It runs 40,000 simulated journeys through Phase 1 → Phase 2 → funded and tells you the odds, the payout, your optimal daily ceiling, and your weekly target — in plain words.

—get funded

take-home—

✦Day model

Days are built trade by trade from your win rate and RR, with edge decayonce you're up past your comfort band — so the tool can find your optimal ceiling. The day-mix below becomes an output to check against your real history.

A.Your account

Account size

$100,000

Where are you now?

the stage your account sits in today — the model starts here

Account right now

where you stand in Phase 1 now: + toward the +10% target, − in drawdown

−1.0%

Trading days left in 2026

manual override · auto = 116 days

120

How many accounts

✱Challenge targets

Phase 1 profit target

FTMO uses 10%; some firms use 8%

+10%

Phase 2 profit target

verification target

+5%

A lower Phase 1 target needs fewer R to clear — it passes faster and more often. The −10% overall floor and −5% daily limit are FTMO-standard and held fixed here.

B.Risk per trade — by phase

Phase 1 risk

aggressive = faster but lower odds

1% $1,000/R

Phase 2 risk

verification

0.75% $750/R

Funded risk

protect the real account

0.5% $500/R

C.How you trade a day

Win rate

per trade, before edge decay

45%

Reward : risk

1:2 book ≈ 2.0 · 1:1 book ≈ 1.0

1:2

Ceiling — bank & stop

you reach +this for the day, you're done

+4R

Daily stop — floor

down this much, you're done for the day

−3R

Comfort band

above +this, the give-back starts (win rate decays)

+4R

Give-back strength

how fast your win rate falls past the comfort band

−25.0%/R

Set the comfort band where you historically start giving profit back (≈+4R), and the give-back strength to how badly overtrading hurts. The optimal ceilingabove is the model's answer to “when is more trading bad.”

D.Resulting day-mix (output — check vs reality)

computing…

This mix is producedby your per-trade settings. If it doesn't match your real last 30–40 days, your win rate / RR / ceiling are off — fix those, not this.

running…

Reading the dials…

chance you get funded—

Edge per day

—

Pass Phase 1

—

reach +10% · per acct

Get funded

—

pass both phases

Time to funded

—

rarely funds in time

Deepest hole (median)

—

peak-to-trough

Daily-limit safety

P1 −3.0% ✓P2 −2.3% ✓Fd −1.5% ✓

each phase's daily stop vs the 5% limit

Take-home by Dec 31 (your 80% — funded stage only)

—

★ Optimal daily ceiling

—

bank-and-stop sweet spot

you're set to

+4.0R

computing…

EV / day (R)optimumyour ceiling

computing…

★ Your weekly target — when to stop

Good days / week

—

Weekly target

—

$ / week · Phase 1

—

$ / week · funded

—

This setup loses on average, so there's no profitable weekly target. Fix the red dials first.

Ask an LLM about this setup

Copy a JSON prompt — the model explained, plus your current inputs and results — and paste it into Claude or any LLM to ask questions.

Simulated, not a promise. The funded payout is real; Phase 1/2 profits only get you funded. High pass odds assume your inputs are real — stress them by dragging your edge down. FTMO accounts are demo/simulated.